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Making an Impact
“The Lone Star Project … hammers Republicans whenever it gets a chance, promoting strong local Democratic candidates and even bringing lawsuits.”
(Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg,
March 12, 2009)
“Anyone who questions whether [The Lone Star Project] can make life difficult for a Republican legislator should talk to former Sen. Kim Brimer.”
(Austin American Statesman, February 17, 2009)
“[The Lone Star Project] is responsible for the aggressive stance the party has taken toward DeLay and other Lone Star State Republicans since the 2004 election.”
(The Washington Post, March 6, 2006)
"David Dewhurst has said most Texans don't have much sympathy "for someone who that can't fill out a two page [health insurance] application every six months".
The Democrat-supported Lone Star Project in Washington reported this week that Dewhurst failed to file necessary forms at least six times in recent years.
(San Antonio Expres News,, 4/12/2007)
"The Justice staff memo was obtained by the Lone Star Project ...The story broke the same day the U.S. Supreme Court was considering legal challenges to the plan brought by Democrats and minority groups."
(Houston Chronicle, 12/3/2005)
"The Texas chapter of the NAACP, along with the Lone Star Project, have analyzed the amicus brief filed by the Justice Department and have concluded, justifiably, that the Voting Rights section of the Justice Department is now controlled by partisan political appointees."
(Roll Call - Donna Brazile, 2/28/2006)
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Texas House Majority in Play in 2010
Democrats Hold Stronger Hand than Expected
Flawed GOP challengers and strong organization increase Democratic odds
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A Strong Democratic Hand | |
The Lone Star Project has reviewed the top seven State House challengers for each party, taking into account the relative strength of incumbents and challengers as well as the demographic and political trends in each district. Although today’s national political environment favors Republicans, virtually every other important factor plays to the benefit of Democrats.
The State House Legislative map was gerrymandered by Republicans in 2001 with the intent of guaranteeing a sizeable Republican majority throughout the decade (Source: Austin American-Statesman, July 24, 2001). Yet, over the last two election cycles Democrats defied the expectations of pundits and political insiders and have closed the GOP State House advantage from fourteen seats to only three. In 2010, even while facing a difficult national political environment, Texas Democrats appear to have played their cards right and could walk away from the table holding a new majority.
Key Democratic Advantages in 2010
When comparing Democratic chances of gaining seats to Republican chances to increase their majority, the Democratic advantage is evident.
- Better organization and strategic planning
Over the last five years, without any meaningful support from national sources, Texas Democrats have quietly built an effective political organization designed specifically to help State House and local candidates. State-of-the art voter data along with professional targeting and polling are available to top-tier candidates and incumbent office-holders. Both the House Democratic Campaign Committee (HDCC) and Annie’s List provide financial support and professional guidance.
Under Chairman Boyd Richie, the Texas Democratic Party aggressively protects and supports the rights of voters while also reinforcing the mainstream views of its most promising challengers. Conversely, Republican campaigns continue to be driven by a network of competing, profit-driven consultants. And, due to Chair Cathie Adams’ extreme, divisive policy positions and mean-spirited rhetoric, the Republican Party of Texas is more burden than benefit to Republican candidates running competitive races (http://www.politifact.com/personalities/cathie-adams/)
- Flawed and ideologically extreme Republican incumbents and challengers
Most 2010 Republican challengers have adopted ideologically extreme views that take them outside mainstream thinking in Texas or in their districts. Others are burdened with controversy or scandal (http://www.lonestarproject.net/Permalink/2009-06-12.html).
- Centrist-minded and practical Democratic incumbents and challengers
2010 Democratic challengers won their nominations by establishing themselves as centrist-minded problem solvers who are well-positioned to appeal to Democratic, independent and fair-minded Republican voters.
- Changing district demographics
Although State House district lines were drawn by Republicans in 2001 to preclude Democratic victories, strong Democratic candidates, smart campaigns and changing district demographics have, in many cases, undermined the designs of Republican map drawers. In 2010, all but one of the top tier Democratic challengers are running in districts with minority populations that were at least 20 percent in 2000 and are now significantly larger. This change in the voting universe allows Democrats the opportunity to build a broad-based coalition of Democrats, independents and soft Republicans and makes it more difficult for Republicans to build a majority by appealing only to their far-right constituency.
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Democrats Hold Good Hand
Democrats don’t need a flush or an inside straight to capture a majority. Three of a kind will do. The challengers below give Democrats a realistic chance to walk away from the table winners.
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Pictured (From L to R): Pati Jacobs (HD-17), John Mabry (HD-56), Loretta Haldenwang (HD-105), Jamie Dorris (HD-113), John Wellik (HD-114), Kendra Yarbrough Camarena (HD-138), Rick Molina (HD-144) |
Pati Jacobs (HD17 – Bastrop) vs. Tim Kleinschmidt (R - Incumbent)
Pati Jacobs, a Bastrop County rancher who runs a family owned grass-fed beef operation, is well suited to challenge Kleinschmidt, a freshman legislator who made so little impact in office that Texas Monthly listed him as “Furniture” (http://www.texasmonthly.com/preview/2009-07-01/feature2). As a local leader in rapidly growing Bastrop County, by far the most populous county in HD17, Jacobs has worked to balance smart economic growth with protection of rural traditions. Kleinschmidt will have to defend questionable water deals and a voting record dictated by extreme partisans and special interests in a district that performed at 49% Democratic in 2006, the last non-presidential election (“Water speculators fishing for profit amid supply fears,” Austin American-Statesman, September 14, 2009). A Libertarian has filed in this race.
John Mabry (HD56 – Waco) vs. Doc Anderson (R-Incumbent)
John Mabry, a respected former legislator once named Freshman Legislator of the Year, is challenging Anderson, another incumbent dubbed “Furniture” for his invisible Capitol profile (http://www.texasmonthly.com/preview/2009-07-01/feature2). However, Anderson has not been invisible to the IRS. On December 21, 2009, a tax lien of $58,122 was filed against Doc Anderson. One month later, on January 25, 2010, a second tax lien for $11,522 was filed. Those two tax liens – totaling nearly $70,000 – are not first-time financial problems for Anderson, who has had $108,000 in six separate tax liens filed against him since 1996. Although this district has favored Republicans since redistricting, after the incumbent’s latest round of tax liens surfaced, local leaders recruited the well-known, trustworthy Mabry, now a small business owner, to challenge Anderson (http://www.wacotrib.com/news/Another-tax-lien-filed-against-Waco-state-Rep-Anderson.html).
Loretta Haldenwang (HD105 – Irving) vs. Linda Harper-Brown (R- Incumbent)
Loretta Haldenwang, a savvy candidate who helped both mom and pop businesses and multi-million dollar enterprises during her time as a senior executive for the Greater Dallas Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, is challenging Harper-Brown, who many consider the most vulnerable Republican House incumbent after winning a 2008 recount by less than two dozen votes (http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/localnews/stories/DN-105folo_06met.ART.State.Edition1.4a1dada.html). Harper-Brown has failed to recognize the changing electorate of House District 105 and run far to the right of mainstream values. A Libertarian has also filed.
Jamie Dorris (HD113 – Garland) vs. Joe Driver (R - Incumbent)
Jamie Dorris is a young professional with deep family roots in her Garland community who presents the first tough challenge Driver has ever faced. House District 113 is similar to districts in Dallas County captured by Democrats in 2006 and 2008. Dorris’ father, grandfather and uncle have all served as law enforcement officers in Dallas County, and Dorris pledges to continue her family's record of public service by doing what Driver hasn’t done: standing up to the special interests in Austin. Incumbent Driver will be forced to defend his record as an out of touch politician best known for asking NOT to be placed on the powerful House Appropriations committee (“Speaker says lawmakers can't swap committee spots,” Austin American-Statesman, February 19, 2009). A Libertarian has filed in this race.
John Wellik (HD114 – Dallas) vs. Will Hartnett (R – Incumbent)
John Wellik, who has risen from humble rural roots to become a successful North Dallas businessman, is challenging incumbent Hartnett, who like Driver has never faced a tough general election challenge. Wellik’s experience is grounded in working hard to raise a family while working to create jobs and foster a positive business climate, making him a good fit for another Democratic-trending Dallas County district. A top lieutenant under former Speaker Tom Craddick, Hartnett’s extremely ideological and partisan voting record is no longer a snug fit for voters in a district which, after Harper-Brown’s, performed better for Obama than any other vulnerable Republican-held House district (http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/legislature/stories/DN-updown_02met.ART0.State.Edition1.50b1a0a.html).
Kendra Yarbrough Camarena (HD138 – Houston) vs. Dwayne Bohac (R-Incumbent)
Kendra Yarborough Camarena, a dynamic young teacher, wife and mother with lifelong roots in the District 138 community, has had the scandal-ridden Dwayne Bohac on the run since she announced her candidacy in April 2009. Facing his first serious challenge, Bohac has spent almost a year ducking corruption charges and an ongoing DOJ investigation while desperately trying to reverse the direction of a legislative record that saw him named as one of Texas Monthly’s Ten Worst legislators in 2005 (http://www.lonestarproject.net/Permalink/2009-06-12.html). Kendra has relied on her lifelong personal involvement in her community and early fundraising success to jump start her campaign in a rapidly changing district that Democratic Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia carried with 52.8% of the vote in 2008. Kendra’s campaign, like all Houston area Democratic campaigns, should also benefit from having popular former Houston Mayor Bill White leading a ticket with a centrist message that will appeal to the decisive political center.
Rick Molina (HD144 – Pasadena) vs. Ken Legler (R - Incumbent)Molina, a former assistant Harris County prosecutor who is well known among Pasadena business and community leaders, will challenge Legler, an extreme partisan whose voting record may rank among the worst ever cast by any House freshman. In his short time in office, Legler’s lowlights include speaking vehemently on the House floor against providing funding to help Texas veterans and casting recorded votes against tuition breaks for Iraq war veterans and installing fire sprinklers and emergency power generators in nursing homes, to name just a very few (Texas Legislature Online). Molina is a centrist candidate who will stand up for working families against big utility and insurance companies, and he will also benefit from Bill White’s presence atop the ticket and a district with a rapidly growing Hispanic population. |
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GOP left with Wild Cards and Jokers
Republicans sit at a table with challengers made up of an odd combination of failed former office-holders and mean-spirited ideologues. In most cases, the Republican nominee is a weaker general election candidate than the person they defeated in the GOP primary.
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Pictured (From L to R): Barbara Nash (HD-93), Bill Zedler (HD-96), Cindy Burkett (HD-101), Stefani Carter (HD-102), Jim Murphy (HD-133) |
COMING SOON… After the Primary Runoff: A Better Look at the Republicans’ Weak Hand
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