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Making an Impact
“The Lone Star Project … hammers Republicans whenever it gets a chance, promoting strong local Democratic candidates and even bringing lawsuits.”
(Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg,
March 12, 2009)
“Anyone who questions whether [The Lone Star Project] can make life difficult for a Republican legislator should talk to former Sen. Kim Brimer.”
(Austin American Statesman, February 17, 2009)
“[The Lone Star Project] is responsible for the aggressive stance the party has taken toward DeLay and other Lone Star State Republicans since the 2004 election.”
(The Washington Post, March 6, 2006)
"David Dewhurst has said most Texans don't have much sympathy "for someone who that can't fill out a two page [health insurance] application every six months".
The Democrat-supported Lone Star Project in Washington reported this week that Dewhurst failed to file necessary forms at least six times in recent years.
(San Antonio Expres News,, 4/12/2007)
"The Justice staff memo was obtained by the Lone Star Project ...The story broke the same day the U.S. Supreme Court was considering legal challenges to the plan brought by Democrats and minority groups."
(Houston Chronicle, 12/3/2005)
"The Texas chapter of the NAACP, along with the Lone Star Project, have analyzed the amicus brief filed by the Justice Department and have concluded, justifiably, that the Voting Rights section of the Justice Department is now controlled by partisan political appointees."
(Roll Call - Donna Brazile, 2/28/2006)
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How Bill White Can Win
Bill White – successful Mayor and businessman – is in an excellent position to become the next Governor of Texas. The path to victory will not be easy for either Bill White or Rick Perry. An unknown “generic Democrat” would trail an unknown “generic Republican” in a statewide election held today. But White has broader appeal than many other Democrats and Perry’s base is very narrow. Perry’s 26 year career and narrow primary win have resulted in diminished enthusiasm and White’s star has been on the rise. And White has precisely the right profile to appeal to independent voters, who will be decisive and who do not like Perry’s extreme partisanship and insider politics.
Bill White’s Strengths
Bill White has many of the advantages of long-time office holders without the political baggage. In a year when the public is suspicious and cynical about career politicians, White’s no-nonsense style and can-do record are assets.
- Successful Mayor
- “With little more than 7 months remaining in his last term, Mayor White has deftly steered Houston through both fiscal and tropical storms. His successor will have a tough act to follow.”(Houston Chronicle, May 15, 2009)
- Named a 2007 “Public Official of the Year” by Governing Magazine (Governing Magazine, 2007)
- Well known and liked in large county and media market
Bill White was re-elected twice as Houston Mayor with re-election margins of 91% and 86%. He is well known in the large Houston-area media market which will account for approximately a quarter of all the votes cast statewide in 2010. (Harris County Elections, NCEC)
- Centrist mindset and a tax cutter
“White cut property tax rates five times and increased cash reserves.”(Houston Chronicle, January 1, 2010)
Consensus builder
- “He’s a moderate politician, and that's what this state needs," [Mayor of Grand Prairie, Republican Charles] England said.”(Dallas Morning-News, April 30, 2010)
- Carries an “anti-politician demeanor” and has avoided partisan battles of the last decade
“With voters turned off by the showboating of modern politics, White is the anti-hero, the non-politician, the un-partisan, the no-nonsense man who has run a business, met a payroll and managed a crisis.” (The Hill, May 3, 2010)
- Strong fundraiser
Raised $2.2 million from Jan. 22 to Feb. 20, and has out-raised Rick Perry over the last two fundraising periods. (Fort Worth Star-Telegram, February 24, 2010)
Rick Perry’s Vulnerabilities
Ultimately, Rick Perry must receive support from centrist voters whose support he has neither earned nor sought since 2002.
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- Shrinking electoral base
Perry won only 39 percent of the 2006 General Election vote. In the 2010 Primary he won only 51 percent of 2008 GOP Primary vote and only 35 percent of the total 2008 Primary vote (Texas Secretary of State’s Office)
- Panders to the irrational right
- “Republican political consultant Jim McGrath of Houston, who is close to former President George H.W. Bush, said many moderates have been embarrassed by some of Perry's rhetoric, particularly his statement that Texas can secede from the union if it wants.”(Houston Chronicle, May 2, 2010)
- Perry “has long been an outspoken skeptic of man-made climate change” (San Antonio Express-News, January 2, 2009)
- High-profile scandals and failure
- “Gov. Rick Perry's staff learned last fall of a Texas Ranger’s investigation into allegations of sexual abuse in 2005 at a West Texas state juvenile facility, but the governor took no major action to reform the Texas Youth Commission until after the report became public last week.”(Houston Chronicle, March 1, 2007)
- After 10 years as Governor, Texas now faces an $18 billion budget shortfall. Rick Perry has offered no plan to fix the problem. (Fort Worth Star-Telegram, May 12, 2010)
- Handouts to friends and cronies
“…at least 17 of Gov. Perry’s former aides have entered the lobbying industry.” (CREW worst governors’ report April 21, 2010)
- Perry Payments
- “The state recently increased the unemployment insurance tax rate charged to employers to its highest level in at least 20 years to help replenish the Texas Unemployment Compensation Trust Fund…The tax rate more than doubled for most Texas employers this year, and it tripled for some employers.” (El Paso Times, January 17, 2010)
- Texas taxpayers have also been forced to fund Perry’s Enterprise Fund boondoggle. A recent report revealed that almost half of the companies that received taxpayer dollars have, "failed or struggled to meet job goals." The companies, including a key player in the subprime mortgage market, Countrywide Home Loans, have been given a total of $363 million taxpayer dollars. (Austin American-Statesman, January 28, 2010)
Poll |
Perry (R) |
White (D) |
Dallas Morning News 2/2 - 2/10 |
43% |
37% |
Rasmussen 2/1 |
48% |
39% |
Rasmussen 2/22 |
47% |
41% |
Survey 2000
2/8 - 2/10 |
46% |
42% |
PPP (D) 2/4 - 2/7 |
48% |
42% |
Rasmussen 3/3 |
49% |
43% |
Rasmussen 4/14 |
48% |
44% |
Rasmussen 5/13 |
51% |
38% |
Average |
48% |
41% |
A close look at the numbers
Public polls released since Bill White announced his entry into the Texas Governor's race have consistently shown weakness by Rick Perry. Given Perry’s 10 years of incumbency, without serious opposition in recent elections, his numbers are dangerously low. In most public polls, Perry performs under 50 percent. Even a recent Rasmussen poll - which typically favors Republicans - shows Perry garnering only 51 percent support which places him squarely within the incumbent danger zone. These independent surveys make Rick Perry perhaps the most vulnerable Republican governor in the country.
(Source: Real Clear Politics)
Perry’s voter base is limited
- In the 2006 general election, running as an incumbent and the only candidate with substantial funding, Rick Perry received only 39 percent - fewer than 2 million votes.
- A million more people voted in the 2008 Democratic Primary than voted for Rick Perry in the 2006 General Election.
- 2010 Primary shows that Texas Republicans are divided. Forty-nine percent of those casting votes in the 2010 Republican Primary chose someone other than ten year incumbent Rick Perry.
The chart to the left shows the voters available to Perry and White and the number of total votes likely needed to win election in 2010. The green bar is made up of voters in the 2006 general election who either chose Rick Perry (about 39 percent of the vote) or chose Chris Bell (about 30 percent of the vote). The purple bars represent the 2008 and 2010 voters from each party’s primaries. The purple bars do not include voters who make up the green bars.
While Perry’s “hard” base (green) is larger than the “hard” base available to White, there are not enough other proven Republican voters (purple) to push Perry over the win threshold (red line). Conversely, while White’s “hard” base is smaller, the number of additional votes with some Democratic history available to him is sufficient to reach the win threshold. |
Demographic path to victory for Bill White
Also, by looking at the expected turnout of Anglos, Hispanics and African Americans and then calculating the historic support level of each group for a Democratic candidate, it shows that Bill White can win. He must earn the support of most Hispanic and African American voters and then garner 41 percent or more support from Anglo and other voters. As a mainstream, fiscally-responsible businessman, Mayor White has a track record and style which appeals to those voters. Obviously increased minority turnout enhances Mayor White’s prospects.
Draft Win Scenario by ethnicity
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Expected 2010 Gen. Election Voters |
% of 2010 Voters |
Dem Vote |
Dem “win” % |
AA |
450,535 |
9% |
382,955 |
85% |
Hisp |
851,010 |
17% |
595,707 |
70% |
Anglo/Other |
3,704,397 |
74% |
1,524,810 |
41% |
Total |
5,005,942 |
100% |
2,503,472 |
50.01% |
Conclusion
Rick Perry’s base is not as large as one would expect for a 10-year incumbent governor running in a state that Republicans have dominated for nearly 20 years.
Bill White is a strong candidate with a good chance to be elected governor in 2010. The challenge for Bill White and his allies is to demonstrate a clear contrast between White’s centrist problem solving style and Rick Perry’s failed, and often corrupt, brand of leadership. To do this, Bill White must raise the funds necessary to carry that message and win the confidence of voters skeptical of Democratic prospects in a state like Texas that has gone consistently Republican in state-wide races. Texans must also encourage and support the growing organizational efforts by Democrats in Texas that have improved over the last two election cycles and have resulted in impressive wins at the district and county levels.
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